Leader Strength — how to read it
← DashboardA real-time read on what the market's strongest names are doing, for trading MNQ. It does two jobs: context — whether the leaders back your idea — and signals, where a validated setup fires at a key level with the leaders confirming (see Level Confluence below). Shown probabilities are measured (walk-forward); sizing/regime thresholds are labeled heuristics. Signals auto-log paper trades for data collection — nothing places a live order.
The one-line read (header)
Regime · Score · MNQRegime badge (see below), the composite leader Score, and live MNQ vs its VWAP. If you glance at one thing mid-trade, glance here.
▲ LONG SETUP bannerFires when ≥4/10 leaders hold above their prior-day high while MNQ hasn't cleared its own — the leaders showing their hand before the index.
▼ SHORT SETUP bannerThe mirror: ≥4/10 leaders holding below their prior-day low while MNQ hasn't broken its own — leaders leading the index down to the level.
Regime (the header badge)
Set by leader breadth — whichever side is broader: how many of the 10 are holding above their PDH vs below their PDL.
STRONG_BULL / STRONG_BEARA strong majority of leaders holding above their prior-day highs (bull) / below their lows (bear) — the most decisive read.
BULL / BEARMore leaders leaning one way than the other — directional, but not a strong majority.
NEUTRALNo clear side — leaders are mixed, no edge either way.
WARMUPEarly in the session, before there's enough data to call a regime.
The core — leader breadth
Breakout / Breakdown breadth (BO / BD)How many of the 10 leaders are HOLDING above their PDH (BO) or below their PDL (BD). The top factor — when leaders stack one way, MNQ usually follows. Strength = the subset moving with momentum.
Composite BreadthWeighted bull/bear breadth based on PDH/PDL, PDC and VWAP.
Leader table & zonesEach leader's zone vs prior-day levels: ▲ above PDH · PDC–PDH · PDL–PDC · ▼ below PDL.
MNQ structure & context
MNQ RangeMNQ on its own prior-day range (PDH / PDL / PDC) with session VWAP — your level at a glance.
Gap ContextOvernight gap direction, room-to-fill in points, and measured fill odds (≥25/50/75% / full) from history — not guesses.
Volatility & sizingPremarket-forecast vs realized vol, and a suggested contracts/stop/target for the regime (more size + tighter stop when quiet, less + wider when hot). A reminder, not advice.
Market Context · Cross-AssetQQQ/SMH/SPY as broad confirmation; VIX/10Y/CL with a risk-on/off read.
Alignment / DivergenceFlags when leaders/indices agree — or disagree (e.g. SMH breaks PDL while QQQ holds), often the earliest heads-up.
Level Confluence (the signal)
The ideaLeaders carry tradeable information ONLY as a confluence filter at a key level — not as a standalone predictor. So a signal needs three things at once: price at a level, a same-bar confirmation (the bar wicks through and closes back across), and leader agreement (net momentum ≥ ±0.20).
ProximityThe close must be within 0.30×ATR of the level. Entering further away nearly doubled drawdown in testing — the level is the stop reference, so a distant entry is a worse trade wearing the same name.
Validated setupsLong: PDL bounce, PDC bounce (bull regime only), PDH breakout (fades at high net, so it's capped). Short: VWAP breakdown, PDH rejection. Everything else at a level is shown greyed as descriptive context — no validated edge, no trade.
GatesPDC bounce needs a bull regime; PDL bounce is skipped on gap-down sessions (the down-gap usually carries through PDL rather than bouncing). A gated signal still displays, with the reason.
Stops & targetsStop 1×ATR. Longs target 2×ATR (1:2), shorts 1×ATR (1:1) — shorts mean-revert faster, so a 1:2 short was measurably worse. ATR is the live 15-bar realised range.
Paper onlyA fresh trigger auto-logs a 1-contract paper trade (one open position at a time, per instrument) to build an honest record. It never sends an order. The live exit is the simple fixed target; the best backtested variants (trailing / structural targets) are not wired in yet.
ESES is tracked for context (levels, gap, volatility) and the same signal is computed on ES's own levels, but ES auto-trading is OFF: the ES backtest was negative in every variant — the Nasdaq-leader confluence doesn't transfer to the S&P.
Modes
● LIVETick-by-tick feed.
ReplayStep a past session from the stored data — set the date, pick the speed.
per-secLive-style replay — MNQ moves each second; closed-bar factors settle on the minute (non-repainting).
Landing previewOn load it shows the latest session's open so the panels aren't blank — pick Replay or Live to start.